This paper develops a new present-value framework in rental housing markets in Korea. To implement the model precisely, I use Seoul apartment data and devise a log price-rent ratio that is a linear combination of home prices, Jeonse, monthly deposits, and Jeonse-to-rent conversion rates. I show that the ratios predict one-period-ahead conversion rates but do not signal their long-term behavior. This finding points out that the conversion rate is so transient that its shock hardly cumulates over time, thereby little affecting the home prices in the long run. In contrast, I find that the ratios strongly forecast the long-term deposit growth, not the short-term growth. The rationale behind this is that its shock is so persistent as to build up over time, which affects the home prices a lot. The implication is that we should monitor an irrational swing of the deposit behavior to attenuate the excess volatility of the apartment lease market.​

주 제 어 : 현재가치모형, 분산분해, 아파트임대시장, 전월세전환율, 시장 안정화
Keyword : Present-value models, Variance decomposition, Apartment lease market, Jeonse-to-rent conversion ratio, Market stabilization​